Maybe it’s the sports fan in me, but there’s just something so fun about debating who should win an award. Although television is art and art shouldn’t necessarily be a competition, who doesn’t want to recognize the best of the best for what they bring to the small screen? The incredible series streaming on Netflix, Max, and Hulu and so many more deserve adulation for their efforts.
The 2024 Emmy Awards are right around the corner on September 15, which means it’s time to start figuring out who’s going to walk away with what trophy! Shōgun and The Bear dominated the nominations in the drama and comedy categories, and Succession’s exit from the race after its final season means other shows finally have a chance to win something for the first time in half a decade (The HBO dark comedy won a gaudy 19 trophies during its four seasons.) These are our predictions for who will win what, from Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series to Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- Tadanobu Asano – Shōgun as Kashigi Yabushige (FX)
- Billy Crudup – The Morning Show as Cory Ellison (Apple TV+)
- Mark Duplass – The Morning Show as Charles “Chip” Black (Apple TV+)
- Jon Hamm – The Morning Show as Paul Marks (Apple TV+)
- Takehiro Hira – Shōgun as Ishido Kazunari (FX)
- Jack Lowden – Slow Horses as River Cartwright (Apple TV+)
- Jonathan Pryce – The Crown as Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh (Netflix)
Jon Hamm never got as much credit as he deserved for playing Don Draper on Mad Men, only taking home one Emmy for his time as the downtrodden, womanizing advertiser on AMC. Look for him to take home his second gold statue for his turn as tech mogul Paul Marks on The Morning Show. Hamm’s impeccable aura and confidence, along with the similarities to Draper, made his turn next to Jennifer Aniston a fantastic fit.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Carol Burnett – Palm Royale as Norma Dellacorte (Apple TV+)
- Liza Colón-Zayas – The Bear as Tina Marrero (FX)
- Hannah Einbinder – Hacks as Ava Daniels (Max)
- Janelle James – Abbott Elementary as Ava Coleman (ABC)
- Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary as Barbara Howard (ABC)
- Meryl Streep – Only Murders in the Building as Loretta Durkin (Hulu)
Meryl Streep is the biggest name on the board here. Her guest appearance on Only Murders in the Building was certainly significant, and her return in season 4 is sure to make the mystery comedy all the better. Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph are always venerable on Abbott Elementary and also deserve recognition, but I’m going to go with Hannah Einbinder here. The underrated younger co-star on Hacks upped her game in season 3 and leveled the playing field with Jean Smart. One could argue she was so good that she could have been placed in the Lead Actress category.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Idris Elba – Hijack as Sam Nelson (Apple TV+)
- Donald Glover – Mr. & Mrs. Smith as John Smith / Michael (Prime Video)
- Walton Goggins – Fallout as The Ghoul / Cooper Howard (Prime Video)
- Gary Oldman – Slow Horses as Jackson Lamb (Apple TV+)
- Hiroyuki Sanada – Shōgun as Lord Yoshii Toranaga (FX)
- Dominic West – The Crown as Charles, Prince of Wales (Netflix)
The Lead Actor in a Drama category is more wide open than it has been in years after the void left by the Succession boys. With none of the Roys anywhere in sight, there are still tons of superstars on the docket. Idris Elba, Donald Glover, and Dominic West are all legends on the small screen. Gary Oldman has joined the trend of actors moving from big films to TV, and Walton Goggins went from supporting actor in most shows to lead actor in Fallout. Yet, in the end, it will be Hiroyuki Sanada winning the Emmy. Sanada’s powerful presence on Shōgun stole every scene throughout the FX series.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary as Janine Teagues (ABC)
- Ayo Edebiri – The Bear as Sydney Adamu (FX)
- Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building as Mabel Mora (Hulu)
- Maya Rudolph – Loot as Molly Novak (Apple TV+)
- Jean Smart – Hacks as Deborah Vance (Max)
- Kristen Wiig – Palm Royale as Maxine Simmons (Apple TV+)
No disrespect is intended for the rest of the nominees here, but Jean Smart on Hacks is the new Julie Louis-Dreyfus on Veep. When Smart is up for an award for portraying fiery comedienne Deborah Vance, she’s going to take the prize and then some. Having already won for the first two seasons of Max’s feminine buddy comedy, Smart should go for the three-peat like Shaq and Kobe. Side note: it’s good to see Selena Gomez get a nomination here after being overshadowed by her legendary male co-stars on Only Murders in the Building.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
- Lionel Boyce – The Bear as Marcus Brooks (FX)
- Paul W. Downs – Hacks as Jimmy LuSaque, Jr. (Max)
- Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear as Richard “Richie” Jerimovich (FX)
- Paul Rudd – Only Murders in the Building as Ben Glenroy (Hulu)
- Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary as Gregory Eddie (ABC)
- Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live as various characters (NBC)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach is the heart and soul of The Bear as Richie. Seeing him go back and forth with Carmy and grow as an individual who has a purpose outside of the kitchen is a joy, specifically in the episode “Forks.” Expect a repeat for the Hulu series’ best secret weapon. Paul Rudd and Tyler James Williams are solid upset picks if the academy tires of Moss-Bachrach, and Paul W. Downs has been marvelous in Hacks as his role expanded from side note to main co-star.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
- Christine Baranski – The Gilded Age as Agnes van Rhijn (HBO)
- Nicole Beharie – The Morning Show as Christina Hunter (Apple TV+)
- Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown as Princess Diana (Netflix)
- Greta Lee – The Morning Show as Stella Bak (Apple TV+)
- Lesley Manville – The Crown as Princess Margaret (Netflix)
- Karen Pittman – The Morning Show as Mia Jordan (Apple TV+)
- Holland Taylor – The Morning Show as Cybil Richards (Apple TV+)
The Emmy Awards like to stick to a small handful of shows when nominating each category, but this year’s Supporting Actress in a Drama Series award is even a little more narrow than usual. With only three programs being represented here, expect the quadrant of talented ladies from The Morning Show to cancel each other out. I’m going with Elizabeth Debicki’s performance as Princess Diana in The Crown. Debicki embodied one of the United Kingdom’s most beloved figures with grace and skill.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Matt Berry – What We Do in the Shadows as Leslie “Laszlo” Cravensworth (FX)
- Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm as Larry David (HBO)
- Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building as Charles-Haden Savage (Hulu)
- Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building as Oliver Putnam (Hulu)
- Jeremy Allen White – The Bear as Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto (FX)
- D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai – Reservation Dogs as Bear Smallhill (FX)
Jeremy Allen White’s depiction of broken chef Carmy Berzatto is going to transcend any number of awards he wins. White can go from gentleman to hot-headed lunatic at the drop of a pan, and he should leave room in the kitchen cupboard for another Emmy this year. I wish Steve Martin or Martin Short would win for Only Murders in the Building, but they’ll always eat votes from one another. Also, their characters are more traditionally sitcom-styled, whereas Carmy is a prestige TV megawatt figure. The latter will always win in this day and age.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show as Alex Levy (Apple TV+)
- Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age as Bertha Russell (HBO)
- Maya Erskine – Mr. & Mrs. Smith as Jane Smith / Alana (Prime Video)
- Anna Sawai – Shōgun as Toda Mariko (FX)
- Imelda Staunton – The Crown as Queen Elizabeth II (Netflix)
- Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show as Bradley Jackson (Apple TV+)
This year’s Lead Actress in a Drama Series list is overflowing with talent. Jennifer Aniston continues to prove she’s more than just Rachel Green on Friends, while Imelda Staunton perfected the role of Queen Elizabeth II with ease. Carrie Coon deserves the nod as Bertha Russell in The Gilded Age. Coon possesses an un-teachable level of talent and has been passed over for an Emmy before for The Leftovers and Fargo.
Outstanding Comedy Series
- Abbott Elementary (ABC)
- The Bear (FX)
- Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
- Hacks (Max)
- Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
- Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
- Reservation Dogs (FX)
- What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Comedy is one of the hardest genres to define in 2024. Shows like The Bear and Reservation Dogs deal with societal issues and mental health problems that would never enter the equation on a sitcom even a decade ago. Only Murders in the Building is a murder mystery that somehow emanates light-hearted fun. Curb Your Enthusiasm closed with a big bang, and Abbott Elementary keeps traditional comedy alive with a mid-2000s mockumentary vibe. The best show on this list, though, is Hacks. Jean Smart keeps winning Outstanding Lead Actress, but the show itself should finally receive its long overdue award after an outstanding third season that pushed the boundaries its characters set for themselves previously.
Outstanding Drama Series
- The Crown (Netflix)
- Fallout (Prime Video)
- The Gilded Age (HBO)
- The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
- Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
- Shōgun (FX)
- Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
- 3 Body Problem (Netflix)
This year’s Outstanding Drama Series category is missing most of the heavy hitters of late. Succession and Better Call Saul ended. The Last of Us and Yellowjackets are on hiatus. House of the Dragon won’t qualify again until next year’s ceremony. That leaves us with shows that might come in second most other years, and they’re about to fall victim to one truly special first season of TV. Shōgun will win this award with ease after a fantastic run of episodes that immersed viewers in Japanese history and respected the culture and storytelling of James Clavell’s novel.
