There has been a steady decline in wine consumption worldwide since 2018, and last year was no different, according to a recent report by the International Vine and Wine Organization (OIV). A variety of unfavorable factors, including adverse climate conditions, a decline in China’s wine consumption, the COVID-19 pandemic (which disrupted supply chains), inflation, low production volumes, and geopolitical tensions, combined to bring global wine consumption down by 3.3% in 2024. This marks the lowest volume recorded since 1961.
But this downward trend is not simply the product of a streak of recent economic and geopolitical bad luck: There has been a gradual long-term decrease in global wine consumption overall — especially in 15 of the top 20 markets — due to cultural and societal shifts in lifestyle, generational drinking habits, and social norms. A closer look at those mature markets will provide insight into where this trend might be heading.
The major wine-consuming markets
Unsurprisingly, the European Union accounted for almost half of the wine consumed in 2024, according to the OIV’s report. The EU’s collective wine consumption drop of 2.8% in 2024 — and a five-year average of 5.2% — explains much of the decline. France, Italy, and Germany drink most of the EU’s wine, and of those three countries, only Italy’s consumption rate held steady. The French consumed 3.6% less wine in 2024 than 2023, and Germany’s decline was 3.0%. Almost every other EU wine market — the Netherlands (down a massive 8.1%), Romania, Austria, and Hungary — showed declines in wine consumption. Only Spain and Portugal trended upward — and then only modestly, with the latter country barely cracking a half percentage point above its 2023 levels.
The trend is much the same in the major wine-consuming markets outside of the EU. Americans drank nearly 6% less wine in 2024 than in 2023 (and since the USA is the largest global wine market, that’s bad news for the business). All other markets either fell modestly (most South American countries) or stayed relatively stable (the UK and Australia). The two big exceptions are Russia, which increased its wine consumption by 2.4%, and China, which flatlined with a whopping 19.3% decrease. But even taking into account factors like lifestyle changes, consumption patterns, and inflation, there’s a much bigger— and more destructive —trend affecting global wine consumption: the climate.
The decreasing global vineyard surface area
In general, there has been a contraction in the global vineyard surface area in the past four years, according to the OIV. This trend has been driven by vineyard removal in most wine-producing countries, leading to a 60-year low in production — down 5% since 2023. The biggest catalyst for this reality is climate change: convulsive, unpredictable, and often extreme weather events in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have reduced global wine production down to 226 million hectoliters (or mhl) in 2024.
This climate-induced disruption takes many forms, according to a report published last year in the journal Nature. For one thing, the suitability of wine-growing areas is changing. This brings both good and bad news: On the upside, there’s the potential of new vineyards being sited in previously unsuitable high-elevation areas; on the downside is its corollary — entire traditional wine-growing regions are changing rapidly. Higher temperatures have advanced grape harvests by as much as three weeks over the past 40 years, while increasing drought conditions reduce yield and negatively affect sustainability. Add to this the other biblically-adverse effects of global warming — new types of pests and diseases, heatwaves, torrential rainfall, and even hail — and the reduction in global wine consumption comes more into focus.
Believe the OIV
The International Vine and Wine Organization describes itself as “a scientific and technical intergovernmental organization, and the world reference to the vine and wine sector.” They consist of 51 member states accounting for 85% of global wine production. For the past 100 years, the OIV has led the way on worldwide vinicultural matters, providing the most recent data, standards, and guidance on wine production and consumption. In the introduction to their April 15 report “State of the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2024,” the OIV expressed a measured optimism about global wine consumption and production.
“Working together to develop solutions to climate change and making wine a beacon of sustainability; investing in research on new audiences so that we can see wine through their eyes; reinforcing our commitment to multilateralism and global trade: these are the elements that will lead the wine sector forward,” OIV General Director John Barker wrote.
The bottom line is clear: Global wine producers must adapt to this multitude of climactic, economic, social, and political challenges — or wither on the vine.
