We live in convulsive times, and the wine industry is no exception: Caught in the terrible trifecta of climate change, historically low worldwide consumption numbers, and steep tariffs, the market has taken some serious hits of late. And, although global wine sales continues its downward trend, It’s not all bad news. Based on the latest numbers, we’re getting a glimpse of not only a difficult first quarter for the wine market, but some positive emergent trends regarding online buying and premium wines.
Let’s start with the bad news first, just to get it out of the way.
Table wine takes a hit
SipSource, a wine and spirits data and analytics source that utilizes wholesaler information, just released its Q1 2025 numbers a few days ago. The wine market slipped both in volume (down 9.9%) and revenue (down 10.5%). The real loser appears to be lower-priced table wines: A previously encouraging trend of growth for “daily driver” wines has reversed. This data is corroborated by the latest BMO Wine and Spirits Group wine market report: “Wineries with an average price of less than $20 saw a net decrease in sales,” it reads, “while those with higher prices remained even with last year.” Even worse, wines priced under $11 sold 6% less in 2024 than they did the previous year.
More of the good stuff
According to the BMO report, we’re seeing growth in the premium wine market. Sales of wines priced at $20 held steady, while the median increase in sales for wines priced between $20 and $50 grew 12%. Even more significantly, premium wines priced $50 and over saw a median increase of 10%. In total, these increases affected about 34% of US wineries. There’s a clear trend here, and it’s quality over quantity.
There’s more good news in the online wine sales market too, although 2024 saw a slight contraction. More than 60% of all wineries expect their direct-to-consumer (or DTC) sales to go up this year, continuing a two-year trend. This will present a challenge to the 11,000 boutique producers whose annual output is fewer than 50,000 cases: DTC sales are their lifeblood, so they’ll have to invest resources in advertising and brand recognition – especially since younger consumers are not only drinking less, but mostly lack the brand loyalty of the Boomer generation. Expect stiff competition among producers in this sector.
Lastly, the BMO report expresses some cautious optimism that the alarming decline in wine sales might be bottoming out: The wine industry predicted a 9% slump in 2024, when the actual result at the end of the day was only 4%. “US market dips toward a baseline” was the report’s takeaway; at this point we’ll take even qualified good news.
