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Climate, prices, and fragility: The triple threat facing global coffee

Exploring the state of the coffee industry

illycaffè
illycaffè

Andrea Illy, Chairman of illycaffè, is a third-generation coffee entrepreneur dedicated to not only advancing the quality and culture of coffee but also addressing the very real threats the industry faces — from climate instability to pricing volatility and supply chain fragility.

In a time of global uncertainty for coffee, Illy shares his thoughts on the future of coffee, from climate instability to pricing volatility. The global coffee brand, illycaffè, was founded in Trieste in 1933 by Illy’s grandfather, Francesco, with the mission of offering the best coffee to the world. A third-generation entrepreneur, he was CEO of the company for 22 years.

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State of the coffee industry

Andrea Illy
illycaffè

Illy has referred to the current state of the coffee industry as facing a “perfect storm, with a unique set of challenges coming together for products, roasters, and consumers alike. He describes us as “Witnessing an unprecedented convergence of destabilizing forces. Climate change is disrupting coffee-growing regions with droughts, floods, and rising temperatures. At the same time, price volatility, exacerbated by speculation and geopolitical instability, is making it difficult for farmers to plan and for roasters to absorb shocks. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow, particularly in Asia, straining a supply chain that is fragile by design,” says Illy. The alignment of the environmental, economic, and social stressors all combine for this so-called ‘perfect storm’.

Commitment to the broader future of the industry

As Chairman of illycaffè and a legacy entrepreneur, Illy dedicates much of his time and energy beyond just the company. Illy is focused on the broader future of the industry, rooted in his firm belief that a “Business must contribute to the common good, especially when it operates within a vulnerable ecosystem.”

“Coffee has given so much to my family, our company, and all of us. Now it’s our turn to protect its future. I see myself not only as a steward of a brand but as a stakeholder of a supply chain that supports 25 million smallholder farmers. Their well-being is inseparable from the quality we deliver. It’s not just an economic imperative, it’s a moral one,” he says.

Viability for producers and businesses

illycaffè
illycaffè

Recently, coffee prices have reached historic highs, yet many smallholder farmers still live below the poverty line. Illy describes this as one of the “Great paradoxes of the industry,” where prices may rise. Still, growers are in a precarious position unless the value is distributed equitably across the supply chain.

“Public-private investment is key: long-term funds to support resilient and sustainable agriculture, price stabilization mechanisms, and direct access to agronomic knowledge. Without this, we’re building on sand,” he says.

For change to occur, Illy believes collaboration is needed between institutions, companies, and governments, as “No single actor can solve, alone, the challenges we face. We need collective intelligence and shared responsibility. Governments should provide regulatory clarity and catalytic capital. The private sector shall align business practices with long-term goals. Academia and civil society should guide us with research and accountability. That’s why I welcomed the launch of an international climate adaptation fund at the G7, designed to coordinate resources across all of these sectors for maximum impact,” Illy says.

Changes in American coffee culture

Coffee and espresso bean
MV-Fotos / Pixabay

The U.S is the world’s largest coffee market and also happens to be one of Illy’s key areas of growth. On this note, Illy shares that there’s been a “Growing sophistication among American consumers. People are increasingly curious about origin, quality, sustainability, taste, and others. We’re seeing coffee appreciated more like wine, with attention to terroir, varietals, and the nuances of flavor that come from artisanal methods. This evolution aligns perfectly with our long-standing commitment to quality and education. For example, through our University of Coffee programs, we’re nurturing a new generation of connoisseurs, passionate coffee drinkers who value the cultural and agricultural richness behind every cup.

In addition, Illy shares that many still see coffee as a simple commodity. In reality, however, “It is the result of immense labor, knowledge, and passion. Each bean carries the story of climate, soil, and human effort. Great coffee doesn’t happen by chance. It requires intentional practices, forward thinking, and a deep respect for the product and the land where it is cultivated. Helping consumers appreciate that story is part of our mission.”

Looking ahead to where the coffee industry is going, Illy remains hopeful that the global coffee community has awakened to the urgency of the industry’s situation. Recently, he’s seen producers “Adopting better practices, consumers asking brighter questions, and policymakers actively listening.”

Above all, Illy believes in the power of collaboration amongst all parties. “If we can align our efforts in knowledge, capital, nature, and conscience, I’m confident we can preserve the beauty of this industry for future generations,” he says.

Emily Caldwell
Emily is a Features Writer at The Manual, where she specializes in food, beverage, and travel content. She focuses on weaving…
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